2023-04-27 Blog

Yuan's global currency transactions for trade rose

  • The yuan was used in 48.4% of all cross-border transactions (in China), Reuters calculated, while the dollar's share declined to 46.7% from 48.6% a month earlier.

High fives all 'round? Maybe not, as buried down the bottom of the article is this:

  • Data from SWIFT showed that the yuan's share of global currency transactions for trade finance rose to 4.5% in March, while the dollar accounted for 83.71%.

The de-dollarisation folks are all too willing to make the jump from a piddling 4.5% to 'it's the end of the dollar!". Sorry guyz, its not even close. 

  • de-dollarization is "lots of talk (again), not a lot of action"
  • "While that is a clear risk if the US abuses its 'exorbitant privileges', we see no evidence of that in the data so far (for example, even Brazil's rising share of CNY reserves replaced CAD, not the Dollar), and our strong view is that there is currently no real contender,"
  • part "of the Dollar's declining share can likely be attributed to regular market forces as Treasuries fell and Asian central banks sold their Dollar holdings to counter the stronger Dollar last year,"
  • additionally, sanctions on Russia, Brazil's plans to set up yuan clearing agreements, speculation about the yuan's use in commodity trading, as well as the US banking and debt ceiling crises aren't enough to displace the role of the dollar in global reserves or in trade
  • other currencies still have to overcome many obstacles to attaining the same status as the dollar, such as:
    • capital market depth, building trust for access and the accompanying legal framework, trade invoicing, and currency management systems